Ever wondered why some hitters suddenly start launching home runs while others inexplicably lose their power? The answer might lie in a metric that doesn’t get nearly enough attention: flyball pull percentage (FB Pull%). Personally, I think this stat is a goldmine for understanding a hitter’s home run potential, yet it’s often overlooked. Let me explain why it matters—and why it’s far more fascinating than it sounds.
The Home Run Secret Hiding in Plain Sight
Here’s a quick stat that should grab your attention: hitters who pull their flyballs have a 30.7% chance of turning them into home runs. Compare that to just 7.8% for flyballs hit to center field and a measly 3.7% for those hit the opposite way. If you take a step back and think about it, this isn’t just a coincidence—it’s a fundamental truth of hitting. Pulling flyballs is the most direct path to power, and yet, so many players and analysts still underestimate its importance.
What makes this particularly fascinating is how much it can fluctuate year-to-year. A hitter who suddenly starts pulling more flyballs often sees a spike in their home run rate (HR/FB). Conversely, a decline in FB Pull% can spell trouble for their power numbers. This isn’t just speculation—it’s backed by data. For instance, out of the 13 hitters who increased their FB Pull% the most in 2026, nine saw their HR/FB rates rise. That’s not a coincidence; it’s a trend.
The Gainers: Who’s Cracking the Code?
Let’s dive into some of the hitters who’ve mastered this art—and what their success (or failure) tells us about the game.
Gunnar Henderson: His FB Pull% skyrocketed from 21.0% to 47.8%, and his HR/FB rate jumped from 12.3% to 19.6%. But here’s the kicker: his hard-hit rate and barrel percentage are down. What this really suggests is that Henderson isn’t hitting the ball harder—he’s just hitting it smarter. Pulling more flyballs has maximized his power potential, even if other aspects of his game are lagging. One thing that immediately stands out is how much of a difference swing direction can make, even when raw power isn’t improving.
Hunter Goodman: Leading the league in FB Pull% (51.2%), Goodman has turned himself into a home run machine. His HR/FB rate is in the mid-20% range, and he’s doing it despite a strikeout rate above 30%. What many people don’t realize is that Goodman’s approach is unsustainable—his BABIP is sky-high, and his extreme flyball tendency could catch up to him. But for now, he’s a case study in how to wring every last drop of power from your swing.
Xander Bogaerts: After two years of single-digit HR/FB rates, Bogaerts is back with a vengeance. His FB Pull% jumped from 25.5% to 41.0%, and his HR/FB rate followed suit, climbing to 17.9%. This raises a deeper question: why did it take him so long to figure this out? Bogaerts has always had the talent, but this adjustment has turned him into a 20-homer threat again. It’s a reminder that even veterans can reinvent themselves.
Aaron Judge: Here’s a guy who doesn’t need to pull flyballs to hit home runs. Judge’s FB Pull% is still below league average (25.6%), yet he’s posting a 37.2% HR/FB rate. A detail that I find especially interesting is how Judge’s raw power allows him to defy conventional wisdom. Most hitters need to pull flyballs to succeed, but Judge is the exception that proves the rule.
The Decliners: What Happens When the Pull Disappears?
Now, let’s flip the script and look at hitters who’ve stopped pulling their flyballs—and the consequences they’re facing.
Jeff McNeil: His FB Pull% plummeted from 34.5% to 11.4%, and his HR/FB rate dropped to a dismal 2.9%. What’s particularly striking is how quickly McNeil’s power has vanished. A decline in bat speed and barrel percentage suggests this isn’t just a fluke—it’s a trend. If you take a step back and think about it, McNeil’s value was always tied to his ability to hit for both average and power. Without the latter, he’s just another batting average specialist.
Gleyber Torres: Remember when Torres hit 38 home runs in 2019? Those days feel like ancient history. His FB Pull% is now at 3.3%, and his power has all but disappeared. What this really suggests is that Torres’ early success was built on a foundation of luck and circumstance. His elite plate discipline keeps him relevant, but the power? It’s gone, and it’s not coming back.
Bobby Witt Jr.: Here’s a puzzling case. Witt’s Statcast metrics are elite, yet his HR/FB rate is stuck below 14%. His FB Pull% has dropped to 7.1%, and it’s costing him home runs. Personally, I think Witt is a ticking time bomb—one of these years, he’ll put it all together and hit 40 homers. But for now, his inability to pull flyballs is holding him back. It’s a reminder that even the most talented players can be their own worst enemies.
The Bigger Picture: Why This Matters
If you’re still not convinced that FB Pull% is worth tracking, consider this: it’s one of the few metrics that directly links a hitter’s approach to their power output. It’s not about raw strength or bat speed—it’s about swing direction. And yet, it’s often overlooked in favor of flashier stats like exit velocity or launch angle.
From my perspective, this is a mistake. FB Pull% is a window into a hitter’s decision-making process. Are they trying to maximize power, or are they focusing on contact? Are they adjusting to pitching, or are they stuck in old habits? These questions matter, not just for fantasy baseball managers, but for anyone trying to understand the game at a deeper level.
Final Thoughts
The next time you see a hitter’s home run total spike or plummet, don’t just look at their Statcast data—check their FB Pull%. It might just tell you the whole story. In my opinion, this metric is the missing piece in so many power puzzles. It’s not the only factor, but it’s a critical one. And if you’re not paying attention to it, you’re missing out on a key insight into what makes hitters tick.
